2024 Pest Forecast

We may be in for heavier than typical pest pressure for the rest of the year if weather predictions hold.

05/15/2024

Overview

Winter 2023-2024 has been the warmest on record and the expectation is for that trend to continue with warmer than average spring months for much of the country. Most pests live a significant portion of their lives outdoors and pest populations are often positively correlated with increased temperatures, fewer freeze events, and normal to high levels of precipitation. What does this mean to you? We may be in for heavier than typical pest pressure for the rest of the year if weather predictions hold. Forecasting pests is even more complicated than forecasted weather, though. There are many factors to consider: Population sizes over the previous years, availability of food, predator numbers, etc.

Rodent populations can also fluctuate depending on exterior environmental factors, but the effects are often longer term and can be overshadowed by the close association they have with human activity, infrastructure. An interesting phenomenon with commensal rodents (house mouse, roof rat, Norway rat), is that often when one species surges the other two species seem to decline in severity. Norway rats, although found throughout the U.S., now only cause spotty and dispersed pest issues. This is a significant decline in activity over the past few decades due primarily to the expanding roof rat invasion on this continent. Commensal rodent trends in this report are based on customer calls, catch trends, and general activity patterns. These trends in this study focus on activity in commercial structures.

New England and Northeastern U.S.

New England and the northeastern United States experienced higher winter temperatures and the expectation is that spring will be much the same. This may translate to earlier and more active ant colonies, bringing foraging workers in and around your facilities as they search for food to grow and help sustain their colonies. Early inspection and treatment for ants is recommended to suppress or eliminate colonies before they rapidly grow and become even more of a nuisance.

Meteorologists have forecasted above average rainfall for the region which could, in combination with higher temperatures, lead to higher numbers of both mosquitoes and large flies. For mosquitoes, it's essential to remove as many sources of standing water as possible from around your building to disrupt their life cycle and prevent mass emergences of adults that bite and could potentially vector disease.

Ecolab's Large Fly Program uses an outside-in strategy to focus on eliminating flies and the conditions that support them from the outside where they are breeding to reduce populations and therefore, the number of flies that could make it indoors and cause problems. What can you do to help? Step up exclusion efforts by keeping doors and windows shut or tightly screened while paying close attention to how trash and recycling are handled throughout your facility. Trash and recycling bins, including dumpsters, should be emptied frequently and cleaned to prevent fly attraction and development.

Ticks are a major public health concern in this region due primarily to the prevalence of Lyme disease. Providing education to your employees/teams about the risks of ticks and how to be tick-safe is valuable, even if your facility presents a very low risk of tick populations. Facilities that have grounds or areas that abut ecotones or tall grass/forests area do carry risks of ticks and deserve management considerations.

When it comes to commensal rodents, mice continue to be the predominant pain point in the northeast. Taking advantage of old infrastructure and stable human populations, mice have entrenched themselves in cities and aggressively invade human spaces. They will continue to be a challenge with some populations rivaling rats in their tenacity and survivability.


Midwest/OH Valley/Great Lakes

The Midwest and Ohio Valley regions also experienced a warm winter coupled with, in some places, way below average snowfall and rainfall. Entering a warmer, drier spring than usual could see moisture-seeking pests like ants aggressively foraging and even nesting indoors when they find a good, consistent source of moisture. Early inspection and treatment for ants is recommended to suppress or eliminate colonies before they rapidly grow and become even more of a nuisance. This could also be true for occasional invaders which typically live on the exterior perimeter and are associated with mulch and leaf litter - Think earwigs, springtails, pillbugs, and millipedes. If there is insufficient moisture in their normal environment, they will follow moisture gradients toward and into buildings.

A mild winter may have also led to greater numbers of surviving overwintering pests like wasp queens, multi-colored Asian lady beetles, brown marmorated stink bugs, boxelder bugs, and cluster flies. If more of these pests were able to survive the winter, we should anticipate greater numbers of their populations the rest of the year. This may be a bad year for yellowjackets, paper wasps, and baldfaced hornets and proactive inspection and treatment should be prioritized to tamp down numbers and help protect your employees and guests during the late spring through fall. For all those other overwintering groups, we may not truly feel the effect of elevated numbers until they begin gathering en masse to overwinter indoors in late summer to early fall. Efforts to exclude these pests should begin in early summertime and wrap up prior to August, for best results.

Mouse pressure is high continuing down the coast and begins switching to strong roof rat pressure towards the Carolinas with roof rat hot spots in Virginia and South Carolina, and areas of mixed rodent activity in some locations. Moving away from the coast into the Midwest, mice remain the predominant species although lessening in pressure. This pattern is expected to continue with roof rats slowly expanding their influence northwards along the coast.

Related Blog Articles

February 26, 2026 | 12:00 AM

testqa01

January 22, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Ants: Complex but Controllable Pests

Controlling ants is complex because of the vast number of ant types. Get the facts about understanding ant behavior and ...

January 29, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Benefits of an Outside-In Approach for Fly Control

Flies are a nuisance that can pose a serious threat to food safety and your business. Learn about the benefits of an out...

January 30, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Hotel Bed Bugs are Back

After many years of virtual eradication from the hospitality industry, the bed bug is back and showing up in even the mo...

January 31, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Bed Bug Prevention in Hotels

Since the resurgence of bed bugs, more hospitality managers are looking for bed bug pest control. Make sure you choose a...

January 22, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Common Types of Ants

Ants can cause serious problems for your business. Use this guide to identify different types of ants and learn how to m...

January 28, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Rodent Control Training for Employees

Rodents are prolific breeders, and because they're rarely seen during the day or when operation is in full swing, an inf...

January 20, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Facts About Mosquitoes

Mosquitoes can hurt your guests and employees and damage your brand. Learn how to protect your business against the thre...

January 21, 2025 | 12:00 AM

How to Find Ant Nests

To deal with ants at your facility, it's important to know how to locate an ant nest and understand what attracted the a...

January 16, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Common Types of Mosquitoes

Mosquitoes can transmit deadly diseases. Partner with Ecolab to eliminate mosquito breeding sites and proactively reduce...

January 24, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Controlling Fruit Flies in Restaurants

More and more diners (and health inspectors) know that fruit flies can be a sign of larger concerns in a restaurant. Lea...

January 24, 2025 | 12:00 AM

Unlocking Business Opportunities: The Rising Importance of Water at Davos

The discussions at Davos underscored the critical role of water in advancing business growth and resilience and the need...